Widescreen Warrior

Weekly Blend #332 – Fervent Fanbases, Old Sport

Rafe Telsch — Wed, 15 May 2013 10:55:50 +0000

It’s Gatsby time! The latest adaptation of the classic novel comes from Baz Luhrmann, a divisive name in entertainment, who Rafe is predisposed to dislike. So how does he wind up giving Gatsby, and what issues does Thomas take with the adaptation? Have a listen to find out. We also discuss Disney’s plans for adapting Into the Woods (or, as we call it, the next Johnny Depp weirdness project), the bizarre images spilling forth from The Amazing Spider-Man 2, and join in on the debate about celebrities like Kristen Bell and Zach Braff using Kickstarter to fund projects, and how that model may appeal more to fervent fanbases than the current studio-dominated system. Co-host: Thomas.

Weekly Blend #332 – Fervent Fanbases, Old Sport
(60 min, 27.51MB)
Direct Download Don’t forget: You can use our Widescreen Warrior Voicemail page to leave us messages. Sure, you can flood it with messages about how we stink and should hang it up, or you can leave us suggestions for news stories you’d like to hear us talk about. All you need is a microphone! You can follow this link to the Widescreen Warrior SpeakPipe page and add your voice to our show.

Tune in to hear our next show recorded live on our Podcast Live page. - just keep an eye on our Twitter feed for an announcement of when we’ll record.

The Great Gatsby [Review]

Rafe Telsch — Mon, 13 May 2013 19:06:54 +0000

As an artist, Baz Luhrmann frightens me. He has shown a history of taking complex ideas and concepts and boiling them down to a pudding-like mess, robbed of all substance. Add in a rapid-fire style of presentation designed to overwhelm the senses, and Luhrman is representative of many of the problems with contemporary filmmaking – using film as an overwhelming assault on viewers without utilizing any subtlety or nuance. So when it was announced that Luhrmann would be taking on one of the great American novels, The Great Gatsby, my initial reaction was anything but positive.

At the same time, I have a complex history with Gatsby. I’m sure I was supposed to read it in high school, but I barely remember the experience other than it being a bit torturous. It wasn’t until later in life, returning to college as an adult, that I had a more positive encounter with the novel, thanks in part to a teacher who was obsessed with using the novel (I had the teacher for two different courses, thus two different exposures to his fascination with Fitzgerald’s work). It wasn’t until I brought Gatsby into my own classroom that I really started to explore the complexity of the novel, watching my own interpretations of the novel shift over time, as well as being exposed to fresh perspectives on Fitzgerald’s novel with each new class. In the past five to ten years, The Great Gatsby has been transformed into one of my absolute favorite novels; a work I enjoy revisiting annually. While I enjoy the novel, however, I am not a fan of previous film adaptations, particularly the famous Robert Redford vehicle and the less-popular tv version with Paul Rudd and Toby Stephens. In fact, in reading the novel time after time, it became evident to me that Gatsby may very well be one of those “unfilmable” stories, to filled with abstract concepts and literary complexities to survive the transition to screen.

This is a long way of saying that I was predisposed to dislike the latest The Great Gatsby adaptation, or any adaptation for that matter. So, it is with great surprise and happiness that I found myself charmed by Baz Luhrmann’s take on the tragic story of a man obsessed with the past and desperate to rekindle past loves and lives, even while reinventing himself as someone as detached from his own past as possible.

Luhrmann’s notorious style winds up being the perfect method of presenting the abstract world of The Great Gatsby, particularly early on in the story as we are first introduced to our narrator, Nick Carroway (Tobey Maguire), and the luxurious world of wealth and parties Nick has newly discovered. Nick arrives in New York intent to ride the success of the current stock market, but he is quickly overwhelmed by the decadence of his cousin Daisy (Carey Mulligan) and her husband Tom (Joel Edgerton) – a decadence overshadowed by the nightly parties at Nick’s neighbor’s house, the mysterious Gatsby (Leonardo DiCaprio). Luhrmann brings Gatsby’s parties to life in a similar way he presented the celebrations in Moulin Rouge, as a combination concert, party, and circus where the director’s overwhelming style is perfect for the spectacle and intoxicated state of the environment.

The presentation of the film is overpowering at times, akin to the accusations made against George Lucas for putting his “special editions” in constant movement, but the beauty of Luhrmann’s adaptation is that all of these moments help keep the adaptation true to the source material. Fitzgerald laid on details about background events though abstract sequences. Luhrmann simply brings these events to life, even if only momentarily on screen. The result might feel overwhelming, but is far more faithful an adaptation than I would have expected, particularly surprising given the director’s decision to use contemporary music instead of the jazz music of Gatsby’s era – another move that words surprisingly well.

Luhrmann wisely pulls back on his abundant style as the story progresses away from the wild parties toward more personal relationships – particularly Gatsby’s relationship with Daisy, his lost love. As the relationships become more important, Luhrmann allows his actors to carry the weight of the scenes, utilizing the skills of the assembled cast. Joel Edgerton perfectly brings to life the hulking, small-minded womanizing Tom, while keeping the character from being too static by bringing a surprisingly vulnerable side to the character. Carey Mulligan is the girl we all want to fall in love with, both for her beauty and her soft mannerism – a portrayal that shifts as she finds herself cornered in all of her relationships. The strongest of all of these, however, is Leonardo DiCaprio’s ability to play the nuances of Gatsby, a character who shines with a reassuring smile but carries tragedy and torment underneath that leaks through from time to time. DiCaprio’s Gatsby is polished as we would expect the character to be, but that polish wears thin in a few places, and Gatsby’s true nature haunts him and the story as events bubble in the summer’s heat.

Luhrmann’s smartest choice comes not as director but as screenwriter (along with Craig Pearce). The movie manages to maintain some of the stronger elements of Fitzgerald’s prose by having Maguire’s Nick narrate the film as he does the original novel. In this case, the narration comes from Nick explaining the events to a psychiatrist as a patient in a sanatorium, first through counseling and eventually writing his account of the events. While the result doesn’t filter events through Nick with unreliability like the source material, it goes a long way to maintaining Fitzgerald’s descriptions and language. While Luhrmann proved that language isn’t quite enough for a faithful adaptation with Romeo + Juliet, here the mixture of language and style brings the book to life on the screen in a fantastic way.

While I don’t agree with all of Luhrmann’s interpretive choices, part of the joy of Gatsby is that it is abstract and open to a variety of interpretations. The director offers his take on the story with a strong enough presentation and loyalty to the original material that what we get here works – quite well, in fact. Between the performances and a style that captures some of the abstract nature of the novel, this Gatsby is the greatest adaptation to date.

-Rafe Telsch

Iron Man 3 [Review]

Rafe Telsch — Mon, 13 May 2013 19:06:49 +0000

Iron Man is, please excuse the pun, the steel foundation of Marvel’s Avengers series. If the first film hadn’t done well, they would have had little to build upon to lead into the collective picture. Iron Man 2 went a long way to laying the groundwork for all of the heroes to finally team up, unfortunately to the detriment of Tony Stark’s individual story. Iron Man 3 shows us that, while Stark’s previous chapters may have been the foundation of The Avengers, the individual hero’s story has only gotten stronger because of the chance to team up with other heroes.

Building all of these movies to a collective whole and then letting them have their own stories again may have been the best thing Marvel Studios could have done. Iron Man 3 picks up months after the events of The Avengers and we see a very different Tony Stark. Where Iron Man 2 saw Tony reveling in his successful transformation into a celebrated super-hero, Iron Man 3 finds Tony changed by the events of The Avengers. In short, Tony has come to the realization that, despite his magnificent success, he is a very small pawn compared to the aliens, gods, and “Capsicle” he encountered to save the world. As a result, Tony is suffering from anxiety attacks and posttraumatic stress disorder, which he has compensated for by doing the only thing he can – building more and more suits of armor. It’s clearly compensation for the shortcomings Stark has been forced to face, as if more suits of armor will help him rival the other powers he’s now encountered, taking the character far beyond the ”billionaire, philanthropist, playboy, genius” status of the past.

In Iron Man 3, Tony Stark becomes a significantly more complex character. Robert Downey Jr. continues to shine in the role, eating up those complexities and rolling them into a fascinating performance. The bravado and sarcasm of the previous pictures is present, but they are presented both as an inherent part of the character as well as a bit of a shield to make up for Stark’s newfound shortcomings. It’s hard to imagine anyone but RDJ playing the part and I certainly hope Marvel doesn’t try to “reboot” the franchise as his contract comes to a close. His performance is just too good, particularly now that the character has a lot more vulnerability to play with.

As you might expect, saving the world from an alien invasion hasn’t ended the need for superheroes. This time the threat comes in the form of the Mandarin, a terrorist leader alluded to in the previous films, who has opened warfare upon America in a very Osama Bin Laden fashion, made especially evident by the character’s appearance. Stark’s involvement with the Mandarin is complicated, driven in part by his arrogance and driven in part by events from Stark’s past. The resulting conflict leaves Stark presumed dead, with little of his precious technology to draw upon. This is where the complexity of Stark’s character really comes into play, having to acknowledge his own hubris and the shortcomings exposed by the events of The Avengers. It’s a beautiful progression of character, masterfully handled by Robert Downey Jr.

Sadly, most of Tony’s relationships from the past movies are underplayed here, which is a shame for Don Cheadle and Gwenyth Paltrow. Some will argue that Paltrow gets more to do here, but I feel like her character is shallower than ever. Thankfully, the balance helps her feel like a more valuable player in the movie – something I’ve taken issue with in the previous films. Cheadle’s Rhodey is woefully underused, particularly after his rechristened armor was such a large part of the movie’s early marketing (he’s now “Iron Patriot” instead of “War Machine” – the government’s attempt to cash in on Captain America’s image and improve their own). Still, so much is going on with Tony and the story does a good job of positioning him so he can’t call on help (to avoid the question of why he doesn’t just call in Hulk, Cap, or Thor) that it makes sense not to see more of Cheadle. After he was a stronger presence in the last story, however, he still feels like an omission here. Thankfully the absences of characters from the previous movies are more than made up by the new players. Both Ben Kingsley as the villainous Mandarin and Guy Pearce as rival scientist Aldrich Killian make excellent opponents, particularly as the story offers some interest twists about their characters. And really, when was the last time anyone complimented Kingsley’s involvement in a popcorn action picture? That alone is testimony to Iron Man 3’s solid composition.

Of course, it would be a drastic oversight to fail to mention that the Iron Man franchise is in new hands this time around. Jon Favreau remains as a producer and reprises his role as Happy Hogan (with a better treatment of the character this time around) while the direction is taken over by Lethal Weapon scribe Shane Black. Considering Black’s only previous direction was Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, it would be natural to worry a little bit about him taking over such an effects-driven series like Marvel’s comic book movies. We needn’t worry – Black handles the action and effects with the same skill as he handles the more character-driven moments. The result is a well-balanced super-hero action flick on par, if not better than the rest of the Avengers heroes have had.

The best praise to give Iron Man 3 is that when it’s over the audience is left ready for more. It’s unfortunate that we’re a while away from another Avengers and no contracts are in place for another solo venture for this character, nor does the narrative leave much room for one. Still, if RDJ and Shane Black can be convinced to do another picture, I’m ready to buy my ticket now!

-Rafe Telsch

Stream the Not-So-Jazzy Great Gatsby Soundtrack

Rafe Telsch — Thu, 09 May 2013 20:59:35 +0000

As with Romeo + Juliet, Moulin Rouge, and… well, just about every other picture he’s directed, Baz Luhrman has decided to go in a unique direction with his adaptation of The Great Gatsby. While the film remains in its traditional 1920s era setting, Luhrman’s adaptation makes use of an eclectic R&B soundtrack, produced by Jay-Z and featuring artists ranging from Beyonce and Andre 3000 to Florence + the Machine.

Honestly, the idea terrifies me a little, but the soundtrack has been a very effective part of the film’s marketing, particularly the trailers, so I’m certainly willing to give the benefit of the doubt here. To help comfort any concerns, the soundtrack has already appeared online in a variety of forms, from Spotify to streaming website Rdio.

Want to have a listen to Gatsby‘s soundtrack? Check out the streaming embed below and let us know what you think – does this have potential or is Luhrman messing with a classic?

Weekly Blend #331 – Iron Man Starts Summer with a Bang

Rafe Telsch — Thu, 09 May 2013 20:58:41 +0000

It’s officially the summer movie season and Iron Man definitely starts things off with Grade-A Bang Bang. Thomas and Rafe offering their views on the third picture in the Marvel franchise (or seventh picture if you want to count all of the Avenger tie-ins). From there, it’s a look through the coming summer months as we talk about what’s coming out: what has caught our eye, what we can miss, and even a few we don’t feel like we’ve really heard enough about – particularly considering their golden summer placements. The plan is to get back to regular shows for the summer months, so keep checking back for new content! Co-host: Thomas.

Weekly Blend #331 – Iron Man Starts Summer with a Bang
(60 min, 27.51MB)
Direct Download Don’t forget: You can use our Widescreen Warrior Voicemail page to leave us messages. Sure, you can flood it with messages about how we stink and should hang it up, or you can leave us suggestions for news stories you’d like to hear us talk about. All you need is a microphone! You can follow this link to the Widescreen Warrior SpeakPipe page and add your voice to our show.

Tune in to hear our next show recorded live on our Podcast Live page. - just keep an eye on our Twitter feed for an announcement of when we’ll record.

Weekly Blend #330 – People Be Tired of This Bull@$!*

Rafe Telsch — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 02:33:34 +0000

Yes, the gaps between episodes are growing – something we address in the first few minutes of the show. Hopefully we’ll get that sorted out soon, but otherwise we’ll produce episodes as we can. Don’t worry – we’ll have a big blowout if we ever decide to call it a day (it won’t happen silently). In the meantime, we catch up over reviews of G.I. Joe: Retaliation and Spring Breakers. We take a look at the movies coming over the next few weeks, which really highlights the idea that while summer may not be here quite yet, the wave of good movies has definitely begun. Throw in some computer gaming discussion, analysis of a few trailers, and the decision challenge that comes with an abundance of good genre offerings, and you’ve got a very full hour here. Co-hosts: Tim and Thomas.

Weekly Blend #330 – People Be Tired of This Bull@$!*
(60 min, 27.51MB)
Direct Download Don’t forget: You can use our Widescreen Warrior Voicemail page to leave us messages. Sure, you can flood it with messages about how we stink and should hang it up, or you can leave us suggestions for news stories you’d like to hear us talk about. All you need is a microphone! You can follow this link to the Widescreen Warrior SpeakPipe page and add your voice to our show.

Tune in to hear our next show recorded live on our Podcast Live page. - just keep an eye on our Twitter feed for an announcement of when we’ll record.

Weekly Blend #329 – The Life of a Franchise

Rafe Telsch — Thu, 14 Mar 2013 10:56:21 +0000

We’re back and making up for lost time with reviews of The Last Exorcism Part II, Jack the Giant Slayer, and dueling reviews of Oz the Great and Powerful. We also catch up on a couple of movie trailers, with varying opinions on Now You See Me and Iron Man 3. Somehow, regardless of the discussion topic, we keep coming back to analyzing franchises of the past like Nightmare on Elm Street or The Evil Dead, talking about how a film thread can grow stronger, weaker, and even evolve into something new over the course of time. Of course, many studios would love to have that kind of lasting power with contemporary franchises, which is why we also discuss how remakes in these franchises don’t seem to have the same strength. Co-hosts: Tim and Thomas.

Weekly Blend #329 – The Life of a Franchise
(60 min, 27.51MB)
Direct Download Don’t forget: You can use our Widescreen Warrior Voicemail page to leave us messages. Sure, you can flood it with messages about how we stink and should hang it up, or you can leave us suggestions for news stories you’d like to hear us talk about. All you need is a microphone! You can follow this link to the Widescreen Warrior SpeakPipe page and add your voice to our show.

Tune in to hear next week’s show recorded live on Sunday around 4pm EST. See our Podcast Live page for more details.

Weekly Blend #328 – Oscar Wrap Up 2013

Rafe Telsch — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 02:54:00 +0000

The Oscars are over and now it’s time to deconstruct Hollywood’s biggest night. We analyze quite a few aspects of the show, from the awards themselves to host Seth MacFarlane to the strengths and weaknesses of the “theme” of the evening. We discuss some of the surprise awards of the night (although there weren’t many of those) and some of the fallout to come from the festivities, including Twitter’s polarized reaction to the show and The Onion Tweet heard ’round Hollywood. (Explicit Language Warning: Due to the discussion of The Onion, the last segment of the Oscar coverage does contain language we would not normally say around our own monthers… except maybe Thomas.) You might also want to check out part of the show in video format, as Rafe’s son makes a hilarious appearance on the show. Co-hosts: Tim and Thomas, with a cameo from Zane.

Weekly Blend #328 – Oscar Wrap Up 2013
(60 min, 27.51MB)
Direct Download Don’t forget: You can use our Widescreen Warrior Voicemail page to leave us messages. Sure, you can flood it with messages about how we stink and should hang it up, or you can leave us suggestions for news stories you’d like to hear us talk about. All you need is a microphone! You can follow this link to the Widescreen Warrior SpeakPipe page and add your voice to our show.

Tune in to hear next week’s show recorded live on Sunday around 4pm EST. See our Podcast Live page for more details.

Argo and the Other 2013 Oscar Winners

Rafe Telsch — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 01:12:10 +0000

Despite the best predictions, the 85th Annual Academy Awards wound up being filled with a bit more tension than most people would have expected. The first upset came early in the evening as Best Animated Picture went a different way than a lot of people expected, and some surprises just kept coming. I know my Twitter feed was filled with fellow web critics commenting on how quickly some of their predictions fell apart, and I was certainly among them (11 out of the 18 categories I made predictions in).

In case you missed the broadcast and the millions of other websites out there carrying coverage of the film world’s major event, here’s a list of the nominees and winners in each category. Join us Monday night as we recap the night and give our takes on the winners, losers, and some of the big surprises to come out of the night, including reactions to Seth McFarlane’s polarizing stint as host.

2013 Academy Award Winners (85th Academy Awards)

Best Picture

Amour

Argo - WINNER!

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Direction

Michael Haneke - Amour

Ang Lee - Life of Pi - WINNER!

David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln - WINNER!

Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

Denzel Washington - Flight

Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook - WINNER!

Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin - Argo

Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master

Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained – WINNER!!

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams - The Master

Sally Field - Lincoln

Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables – WINNER!

Helen Hunt - The Sessions

Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

Animated Feature Film

Brave - WINNER!

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola - Moonrise Kingdom

Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty

John Gatins - Flight

Michael Haneke - Amour

Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained - WINNER!

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Tony Kushner - Lincoln

David Magee - Life of Pi

David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook

Chris Terrio - Argo - WINNER!

Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi – WINNER!

The Avengers

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Music (Original Score)

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi – WINNER!

Lincoln

Skyfall

Music (Original Song)

“Before My Time” – Chasing Ice (Music and Lyrics by J. Ralph)

“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” – Ted (Music by Walter Murphy; Lyrics by Seth MacFarlane)

“Pi’s Lullaby” – Life of Pi (Music by Mychael Danna; Lyrics by Bombay Jayashri)

“Skyfall” – Skyfall (Music and Lyrics by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth) – WINNER!

“Suddenly” – Les Misérables (Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil)

Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Misérables

Life of Pi

Lincoln- WINNER!

Cinematography

Anna Karenina - Seamus McGarvey

Django Unchained - Robert Richardson

Life of Pi - Claudio Miranda - WINNER!

Lincoln - Janusz Kaminski

Skyfall - Roger Deakins

Costume Design

Anna Karenina – WINNER!

Les Misérables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsman

Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Invisible War

Searching for Sugar Man - WINNER!

Documentary Short Subject

“Inocente” - Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine - WINNER!

“Kings Point” - Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider

“Mondays at Racine” - Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan

“Open Heart” - Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern

“Redemption” - Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill

Film Editing

Argo - William Goldenberg - WINNER!

Life of Pi - Tim Squyres

Lincoln - Michael Kahn

Silver Linings Playbook - Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers

Zero Dark Thirty - Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

Foreign Language Film

Amour (Austria) - WINNER!

Kon-Tiki (Norway)

No (Chile)

A Royal Affair (Denmark)

War Witch (Canada)

Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Misérables - WINNER!

Short Film (Animated)

“Adam and Dog” Minkyu Lee

“Fresh Guacamole” PES

“Head over Heels” Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly

“Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”" David Silverman

“Paperman” John Kahrs - WINNER!

Short Film (Live Action)

“Asad” Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura

“Buzkashi Boys” Sam French and Ariel Nasr

“Curfew” Shawn Christensen - WINNER!

“Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)” Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele

“Henry” Yan England

Sound Editing (A tie!)

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall - WINNER!

Zero Dark Thirty - WINNER!

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Misérables - WINNER!

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Rafe’s 2013 Oscar Night Predictions

Rafe Telsch — Sun, 24 Feb 2013 19:10:01 +0000

I probably should have put up my actual Oscar predictions a week ago, but let’s be honest: nobody is using what I say to place any bets in office betting pools. There are certainly a lot better qualified people to use as a basis for gambling, say Nate Silver, for example (whose predictions I still haven’t looked at beyond bookmarking the page). Hell, I still haven’t even seen all of the contenders, which is why I still haven’t posted a “Best of 2012″ list yet (although that should be coming soon).

Still, I do have an opinion on who should take home the statues tonight and I tend to like to have those documented, so with the awards ceremony only a few hours away, here are my predictions for most of the awards of the night. I’ve only left out a handfull of categories, mostly things like “Best Short” where I haven’t seen the nominees and the ever-confusing sound categories where anyone who doesn’t work specifically in sound can’t seem to tell you the difference between the two awards or how the nominees are selected. If you want to see the entire list of award nominees, check out our original nominations post here.

The Oscar broadcast, hosted by Seth MacFarlane, will air tonight, February 24th on ABC at 8:30 p.m. Eastern. We will be gathered in the Widescreen Warrior chatroom to discuss the proceedings during the broadcast and a new episode of our podcast will come out tomorrow with our reactions to the night’s best and worst moments. Of course, you can sound off with your predictions or tell me how incredibly wrong I am in the comments section below!

85th Academy Award Predictions

Best Picture

1st Place: Argo

2nd Place: Beasts of the Southern Wild

3rd Place: Silver Linings Playbook

Other Nominees: Amour, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty

Rafe says: While it’s become popular to back Argo as the victor, I’ve been saying it ever since I saw the movie, and of all of the nominations it was the most appealing before I saw it as well. Affleck shows his maturity as a director with this picture and since he really was snubbed by not getting a direction nomination, I suspect the movie will wind up getting honors instead. Expect this to lead to some sort of overhaul of the nomination process, much like we got a few years ago when “popular” films were being excluded. If Argo doesn’t somehow take top honors, I’m picking some of the smaller films to take top honors instead. I suspect Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, and Les Miserables are simply too specific with their audiences to win over a majority. Life of Pi remains a wild card, simply because I still haven’t seen it.

Direction

1st Place: David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook

2nd Place: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

Other Nominees: Michael Haneke (Amour), Ang Lee (Life of Pi). Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Rafe Says: Without Affleck in the running, this becomes a bit of a challenge. Silver Linings Playbook is pretty well-directed and, as I said before, I suspect some of the movies are too focused to win everyone over. I could see the Academy honoring Spielberg with another Oscar, but I kind of hope they don’t – he’s won before for movies better than this and I’d hate to see him encouraged not to rise to that level again, even if Lincoln is a solid picture.

Actor in a Leading Role

1st Place: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

2nd Place: Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

Other Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Denzel Washington (Flight)

Rafe Says: This has been Daniel Day-Lewis’s award ever since Lincoln came out. Everyone knows it. I even heard Bradley Cooper on an NPR interview the other night say his big reward will be if Lewis congratulates the other nominees in his acceptance speech. The only way Lewis loses this is if so many people are confident about his ability to win that they throw a vote towards Phoenix for his excellent performance in The Master and wind up unseating Lewis’s victory. Of course, that assumes they can weigh Phoenix’s Masterful performance without thinking about his crazy antics over the past few years (documented intentionally or unintentionally in I’m Still Here).

Actress in a Leading Role

1st Place: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

2nd Place: Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Other Nominees: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Rafe Says: Lead Actress has always been a difficult category for me to pick and this year is no different. I think it’s Lawrence’s turn to take the award home, but I could very easily be wrong. I don’t think it’s going to go to Wallis, who is exceptionally young (and young winners have never proven to make good award-winning moments), despite the quality of her performance (although it could be argued that they shot a ton of footage and used the best to make her performance seem so sophisticated). I think Chastain’s out as most people’s assessment of Zero Dark Thirty has waned, but Riva or Watts could be a wild card. This is the category I’m least confident about predicting.

Actor in a Supporting Role

1st Place: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

2nd Place: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Other nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Rafe Says: Waltz certainly improves the movie he’s in and takes ownership of almost every scene in which he appears. That said, he’s also a recent winner and that might turn people against him. Jones is exceptional in Lincoln but some might argue that he’s just doing what he does best, which he also showed at the Golden Globes may not be too different from who he really is. Still, both are strong additions to their picture and either one is deserving. I still don’t get why Arkin was nominated but both DeNiro and Hoffman are worthy nominations as well; I just don’t think they’ll have the votes to take home the statue.

Actress in a Supporting Role

1st Place: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

2nd Place: Helen Hunt - The Sessions

Other nominees: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Rafe Says: It’s become popular to frown at the idea of Hathaway winning over one uncut song, but it’s a killer moment on film – not just for 2012 but for all time. That said, it’s also not her only exceptional moment in the movie and people who have seen all of Les Miserables have to admit she’s a highlight of the picture. Hunt goes vulnerable (and naked) for her role which Academy voters tend to like. I don’t think any of the others are really contenders past the nomination phase, particularly Field who has gotten a lot of backlash for what is a good but not exactly complex performance in Lincoln.

Animated Feature Film

1st Place: Wreck-It Ralph

Other Nominees: Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Rafe Says: I’m only picking one in this category since it’s the category I’ve seen the least in. Stop-motion may be popular this year, but it didn’t exactly intrigue me enough to see any of those offerings (which is a shame since I’m normally a big stop-motion animation fan). Disney has three out of the five nominations, but Wreck-It Ralph is by far their best of the three, and that’s coming from someone who liked Brave.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

1st Place: Michael Haneke - Amour

2nd Place: Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty

Other nominees: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom), John Gatins (Flight), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Rafe says: Consider this the consolation prize for either of my picks. I don’t expect Amour or Zero Dark Thirty to take home many prizes, so here’s one they can expect. Of the two I expect Haneke to win it because he’s the one directly losing out in the direction category.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

1st Place: Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

2nd Place: David Magee - Life of Pi

Other nominees: Tony Kushner (Lincoln),, David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Chris Terrio (Argo)

Rafe says: Pretty much the same logic as above – consolation prize against movies that may not win much else. Pi has a chance at some of the technical categories, so I expect Beasts has a better chance here, but it’s only a slightly better chance.

Visual Effects

1st Place: Life of Pi

Other nominees: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Avengers, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman

Rafe says: It’s the tiger. It’s the 3D. It’s a sure bet.

Music (Original Score)

1st Place: Life of Pi

2nd Place: Argo

Other nominees: Anna Karenina, Lincoln, Skyfall

Rafe Says: As I’ve said over the past few weeks, the best score was Beasts of the Southern Wild which wasn’t even nominated. Of the remaining, I’m more partial to Argo – especially as the tension rises. William’s Lincoln score is unremarkable and I’m not familiar with the other nominees beyond samples, so I’m going with my gut and saying Life of Pi will have the best chance followed by Argo. I wouldn’t rule Skyfall out completely though.

Music (Original Song)

1st Place: “Skyfall” – Skyfall (Music and Lyrics by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth)

2nd Place: “Before My Time” – Chasing Ice (Music and Lyrics by J. Ralph)

Other nominees: “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” – Ted (Music by Walter Murphy; Lyrics by Seth MacFarlane), “Pi’s Lullaby” – Life of Pi (Music by Mychael Danna; Lyrics by Bombay Jayashri), “Suddenly” – Les Misérables (Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil)

Rafe Says: I’ve rethought this one since we made our predictions on last week’s podcast. I think Skyfall probably has the best song of the ones nominated and the best chance of winning. I still like “Before My Time” but I think voters will agree that Adele has really captured the feel of a Bond song with her tune – not exactly an easy task to accomplish considering the last few movies’ theme songs.

Production Design

1st Place: Les Misérables

2nd Place: Lincoln

Other nominees: Anna Karenina, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Life of Pi

Rafe Says: Notice how Les Miserables hasn’t really been a big winner in the other categories? This is where it’s going to shine. The same goes for Lincoln. The production design of both of those movies is exceptional and I don’t see how anyone would cast their vote for The Hobbit (too much of something we’ve seen before) or Anna Karenina (the “stage world” allows for a bit less consistency than Les Miserables or Lincoln‘s “real world” approach).

Cinematography

1st Place: Lincoln - Janusz Kaminski

2nd Place: Skyfall - Roger Deakins

Other nominees: Anna Karenina - Seamus McGarvey, Django Unchained - Robert Richardson, Life of Pi - Claudio Miranda

Rafe Says: I think cinematography is one of the areas Lincoln really shined and I hope it’ll be recognized for it. Otherwise, Skyfall gave us a return to decent cinematography for the Bond franchise, especially after the debacle of Quantum of Solace which was nearly unwatchable in places. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pi become a wild card, but I wouldn’t expect Karenina or Django to really be contenders here.

Costume Design

1st Place: Anna Karenina

2nd Place: Snow White and the Huntsman

Other Nominees: Les Misérables, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror

Rafe Says: Forget about the primary contenders in all of the other awards. This category sort of sits by itself, and I expect it’ll stay completely by itself by awarding films that have barely been considered in other categories. Where I feel like the “stage world” approach to Karenina may hurt it in production design, it might help it edge out a victory here. Otherwise, look at the diversity that shows up in Snow White and the Huntsman and expect it to claim the award. Maybe if Huntsman hadn’t come out the other Snow White tale, Mirror Mirror would have a shot, but I just can’t see it winning over the others.

Film Editing

1st Place: Zero Dark Thirty - Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

2nd Place: Argo - William Goldenberg

Other Nominees: Life of Pi - Tim Squyres, Lincoln - Michael Kahn, Silver Linings Playbook - Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers

Rafe Says: Both Zero Dark Thirty and Argo have the advantage here, with stories that require moments of suspense. That suspense is typically created through the editing process and it’s done really well in both films. I expect Zero Dark Thirty to edge out the victory here simply because it’s not getting many other statues for the night.

Foreign Language Film

1st Place: Amour (Austria)

Other Nominees: Kon-Tiki (Norway), No (Chile), A Royal Affair (Denmark), War Witch (Canada)

Rafe Says: I haven’t seen them, but history has shown in the past that a film nominated for Best Picture and Foreign Language Film will usually win this as the consolation prize. I would expect to see that again this year.

Makeup and Hairstyling

1st Place: Les Misérables

Other nominees: Hitchcock, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Rafe Says: I still don’t see how Lincoln wasn’t nominated for this, considering it has just as much (if not more) diversity in beard styles as The Hobbit. I think too many people will be put off by Hitchcock‘s attempt to turn Hopkins into the master storyteller and again The Hobbit has a bit of a disadvantage since we’ve had three previous films that this essentially just follows along. I don’t think Les Miserables is necessarily the best, but I expect it’ll take the award through process of elimination.